I've been listening to The Fourth Turning is Here (2023), an audiobook by Neil Howe, who co-wrote the bestselling book Generations (1991) with William Strauss. The pair wrote a few other books together but Generations is the most well-known. In it they described their theory of recurring generational cycles in American and Western history. Their theory is based on larger cycles of around 85 years called "saeculum," which are then divided into four "turnings" or stages, characterized by similar types of economic, political, cultural and social events. The people who live through those stages are described by generations of around 21 years on average, but they can be anywhere from 18 to 24 years, give or take.

These are the generations we're all familiar with, although the date ranges may differ from what you've seen elsewhere. I prefer the Strauss-Howe date ranges, though, because they make the most sense cyclically. Also, they stick to the approximate 20-year spans, whereas other generational depictions begin to get more and more truncated the closer they get to present day, until the current generations last only about 12-15 years. The key difference with their book versus other descriptions of generations is this cyclical pattern, which they map all the way back to the 1400s. I highly recommend reading Generations, or at least the overview of Strauss–Howe generational theory on Wikipedia.

According to Strauss and Howe, the living generations and their birth year spans are:

• GI or Greatest generation (1901–1924)

• Silent generation (1925–1942)

• Baby Boomers (1943–1960)

• Generation X (1961-1981)

• Millennials (1982-2005)

• Gen Z or Homelanders (2006-2029)

Each generation falls into one of four archetypes which recur over and over, and each "saeculum" is about the length of a human lifetime, around 85 years:

Prophet

An idealistic generation that enters childhood during a "High," a time of rejuvenated community life and consensus or New World Order. They become self-absorbed crusaders focused on morals and principles, one example being the Baby Boomers.

Nomad

Entering childhood during an "Awakening," a time of social ideals and spiritual agendas, led for example by the Baby Boomers as the 1960s and '70s, and growing up as under-protected, cynical, independent children who become pragmatic leaders in midlife. Many go on to become overprotective parents to make up for their lack of protection in childhood. Obviously, this is Generation X, and previously, the "Lost" generation who came of age in the 1920s.

Hero

This generation enters childhood during a time of "Unraveling." Individual pragmatism, self-reliance and laissez-faire economics rule these times and this generation comes of age as energetic, overly confident and politically engaged, yet restricted by the economics and politics of their time. Examples include what they call the GI generation that fought in WWII and of course the Millennials.

Artist

The generation that enters childhood during a time of "Crisis," born to Nomad parents, they are overprotected, conformist, socialized and social. These include the Silent generation, which came before the Baby Boomers, and the current children of Gen Z.

The other part of their theory, besides generations, is "turnings," which are four stages of social or mood eras in which these generations grow to adulthood, eventually taking leadership roles in society (roles which are colored by their generational personality types). Each generation parents their children in reaction against (often in exact opposition to) the way they were parented.

The most infamous example is how the "free-range" Gen X grew up feral in the streets while their often divorced or absent parents were either working or on their own journeys of self-discovery, so when they grew up and had children of their own (Gen Z), they became the helicopter parents we're all-too familiar with, never letting their perfect, special "kiddos" out of their sight and becoming a constant thorn in the side of educators (and eventually employers) when they feel their children aren't being given proper care, respect and opportunities.

The four turnings/stages are:

High, a period which follows a crisis, e.g., the post-war American era beginning in 1946 and ending with the assassination of JFK in 1963. This is an era of economic boom, commercially flourishing but socially conforming; scientific and educational achievements rooted in government spending and a social safety net.

Awakening, a period when institutions and authority come under attack or are superseded by a desire for self-awareness, authenticity and personal freedom, like the mid 1960s to early '80s. Creativity, spiritual seeking, a feeling of discovery and possibility, of things accelerating and technological advancements and social changes happening faster than structures and institutions can handle.

Unraveling, which is typified by individualism, the eroding of financial security, middle class fracturing or shrinking, institutional weakness or collapse, mistrust of government, a feeling that we're heading towards a crisis or that things are falling apart, increasingly partisan rhetoric and civil society dividing into factions, most recently the early 1980s through the mid-2000s.

Crisis, an era of revolution, destruction, economic unrest, war, etc., previously the period from the Wall Street crash of 1929 through the end of World War II in the mid 1940s. We are now in a crisis stage which began in the mid-2000s.

The Fourth Turning is Here

In his latest book, The Fourth Turning is Here, Neil Howe goes into great detail about the historical cycles and crises in American/Western society going back 500 years. He then describes our current crisis and its impact on the five living Generations; the Silents, Baby Boomers, Generation X, Millennials and Gen Z. He hazards some fascinating and well-founded predictions on how each of these generations will react and evolve through the remainder of the current crisis period and what we might be able to expect to come after. The current crisis was presaged by 9/11, began in earnest with the financial crisis of 2008, culminated in the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020 and will continue until approximately 2030, at which point another High period will begin the cycle again.

This is the sobering (hell, downright frightening) part of the book, which talks about the very real possibility of a second Civil War in the US, increasing authoritarian rule in many countries abroad, social unrest across the world and the waning influence of international bodies like the European Union, UN and NATO.

Of course any theory like this is going to come under criticism from people who don't like to be categorized, or feel like personality theories are never inclusive enough of non-western societies, or gloss over racial and class differences, etc, and of course there are always those who feel that prediction is simply a fool's errand.

But generations obviously exist. We've all had the experience of reading a description of our generation (or the endless memes on Instagram) and feeling that mild electric shock of recognition.

We can quibble over what year this or that generation began or ended, but as Strauss and Howe have said, the boundaries of generations and turnings are not mathematically exact, like physics or astronomy, where time periods begin and end like clockwork.

It's more like organic chemistry or biology where precise timing is harder to predict but cycles obviously exist and evolution occurs gradually, with causes and effects that are complex yet repeatable, with constant variations and mutations over endless cycles. In nature, cycles and evolutionary change are often difficult to describe while you're inside them, but zoom out and observe them from a distance over time and they become clearly evident and describable.

Generational cycles are more like seasons. Sometimes you have a long summer and sometimes you have a short summer. In any given year, winter may be mild or harsh, come earlier or later, but make no mistake, winter is always coming.

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